What is it?

The Scenario method is a strategic and learning process. Its focus is most often explorative (plausible futures), but can also be normative (desirable futures).
 
Its value proposition is to provide strategic orientation based on a systematic exploration of environmental uncertainties.


Scenarios in 4 steps:

Identify critically important uncertainties in the global (business) environment
(in 5, 10, 15, 30 years):  identify 6 to 10 Key Uncertainties (or Key Drivers) and
their 2 to 5 different effects/outcomes.

Create 3 to 5 contrasted future Scenarios of the environment from the coherent combination of one effect/outcome per each Key Uncertainty.

Project the business/topic within each environmental Scenario:
How does success would look like? What would need to change?

Share your Scenarios and take decisions and actions that are said “robust”, i.e. that cover most Scenarios.